Robert's Blog

May 22, 2009 10:10 AM

Since the evolution of the Internet in the late 90’s, several visionaries have touted the concept of “Cloud Computing”. Today, “Cloud Computing” is a buzz word, yet it has been the ultimate goal of the technology industry, whether consciously or subconsciously, over the past decade.

In the January 18,1999 article “Corporate Evel Knievel” in US News & World Report, Larry Ellison (CEO of Oracle) was quoted in saying

”Today’s computer networks “distribute complexity”; tomorrow’s will be more like power, water, and television networks. “A TV network is enormously complicated,” he explains. “It’s got satellites and microwave relays, cable head ends, recording studios, delayed broadcast, ad insertion. But a TV itself is a simple thing.”

How far are we from having our computers being as simple as a TV?

1999 was too early to achieve this vision, but 10 years later, we’re very close to getting there. In a Slashdot article “The Future Might Be BIOS and Browsers”, the author mentions that we aren’t so far away from a BIOS based operating system with only the browser needed to access Google Docs and other cloud applications. Today, netbooks are extremely popular, due to their size and cheap cost, but without the cloud, nobody would want an underpowered netbook if they had to install every application locally, as it would make the netbook slow and unusable.

The last decade has brought many innovations to enable the OS-less world:

• Software – Software development has evolved significantly since the late 90’s. (Java, Flash, HTML, and CSS). The intent has always been to have an abstraction layer between the hardware and the software. The browser is the ultimate client. Java and Flash allow for more features within the browser experience. Soon, Adobe Air will continue to make impact to this space.
• Hardware -Processors/Storage – Moore’s law continues to impact this area. Today’s computers,  with the creation of multi-core processors, as well as the movement to 64-bit processing has increased the power of commodity hardware, making the entry into hosting applications much lower than back in the 90’s. Servers are cheaper and faster. Desktops/Laptops can now power Java! Did any of you try to run Java in 1999? It was too slow, but today, Java has the hardware it needs.Virtualization – Many would say that Virtualization should be it’s own category, but I think that without the powerful hardware, there would be nothing to slice up. But with virtualization, it lowers the entry barrier for many businesses into entering the hosting business. You no longer need to buy multiple pieces of hardware to develop, which saves people money.
• Storage – Disk is cheap!!! Could you say that a decade ago? Storage clouds are now financially possible for many hosting companies today, where mail providers can give unlimited mailbox storage. Even photo storage can be found for free on today’s Internet.
• Network/Bandwidth – Last, but not least, is the network. I am biased since I come from this field, but without the        network, you wouldn’t have an Internet. There are 2 major areas with the network that enables an OS-less, cloud-centric world.
• Ubiquity – Today, you can get the Internet from everywhere. On your cell phones, 3G cards, at home, work, cafes, McDonalds!!! This ubiquity is key, and was not present a decade ago.
• Bandwidth – Bandwidth is cheap. I remember paying $1,500 a month for a T1 (1.544Mbits/sec) back in 1996. 13 years later, I get 12Mbits/sec download 4Mbits/sec upload for $60/month. Within the next 2 years we will begin to see 4G data services (WiMax/LTE) begin to become available. This will truly allow us to get the performance for any application, from email to video, anyplace and anytime.

Of course, the Internet would be nothing without the content. The above technology innovations are enabling great content on the Internet. TV, movies, music, social networking, and the traditional websites are all available on the web. Hulu, Netflix streaming, Napster, Pandora, Google Docs, web conferencing, and VOIP are all enabled now.

We aren’t that far off from an OS-less world. Most companies have targeted the browser as their client of choice. Adobe Air and Java will continue to support or supplement the browser experience. The Palm Pre is an example of a web centric platform.

Well, this was my long winded blog of the day. I haven’t said anything new, just stating what many people already know. Have a good memorial day weekend!

~rb